Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Monday, December 29, 2014

Hypothesis for predicting location of the major earthquakes

hi
 After much home work ( more than six years),following hypothesis is published for predicting locations of major earthquakes
 One more hypothesis is can be given is like this

If the quake is more than 6 ,the place ie location could be depending on
1) Moon's location (+ or - 20 degrees)
2) Moon's location + 180 degrees (+ or -20 degrees)
 However this depends on the stronger trigger at that time
 Generally it is Sun or Moon
In some cases it could be Jupiter, Venus or Mars ,if they are at perigee and at Maximum declination on that day
 To days-29th December 2014(6.1 -Philippines quake) corresponds to Moon
This hypothesis, is under trial and I have seen it working in more than 75% major quakes
Amit

18 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You're wrong.

You're not 75% correct.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Hold it.I am talking about location hypothesis.This has never been disvlosed earlier.How did you check it ?
Amit

Anonymous said...

Sorry to butt in, but Rogers vocabulary is limited to NO, NOT WRONG and NEVER, NEGATIVE etc. Dont try to change this, its too late.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You're right, I haven't checked location but if you can't get date right what good is location?

Anonymous;

All it takes is correct predictions.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger

you are making haste
I am talking of checking actual 7+ quakes its time and locations.Forget my predictoon
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Which predictions?

You don't normally give locations.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
What I am talking is checking my hypothesis against actual occurred 7+ quakes , for location check
This has nothing to do with my predictions
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your hypothesis is too difficult to check.

You have too many factors which may or may not apply in a given case.

If I check all of them and score a hit if any one of them applies the odds may be 75% or more for chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I do not think so. I am doing it manually also
First only to check 7+ quakes with Moon and Sun
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

How do you relate sun and moon RA position to earth's lat/lon?

Haven't we done all this before?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
No. We have never done it before
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
no we have never checked it earlie
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I looked at all 7+ quakes in the NEIC catalog, finding 645 of them.

Then I determined the subsolar and sublunar locations for each quake and the distance between them and the quake longitude.

If the distance was <= 20 or >= 160 a hit was counted.

There were 142 hits for sun and 123 for the moon, in each case less than the expected number based on the range of degrees covered by the hit area.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I look it this way
1)Totl hits are 265 out of 645 ie 42%
2) Total longitude covered by prediction are
2( 20+20)= 80 degrees
ie 80÷360= 22%
So practically hits are twice the longitude covered
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No, that's wrong.

The hits are counted individually. The odds on either one hitting are 22% and that's about what happens.

If you want to combine them you'd get the odds on both hitting which is 0.22*0.22=.0484 and 29 actually happened, a bit better than chance.

It's again, just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Another way to look at it is that the odds are 80/360 for either sun or moon but you have two shots at it (sun and moon) so it's 160/360
or 44% that one will be a hit.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
No. 80 includes Sun and Moon both
(40+40). You can not make it twice
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Sun and moon each have 80 degrees covered (0 +/- 20, 180 +/- 20).

That's 160/360 or 44.4%

If you want to consider only 0 degree hits we can do that.

Roger