Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Results of my Prediction of 6.1 and above quakes till today (22nd december 2014)

Hi
 Here is brief review of my prediction for 6.1 and above quakes between September and December 22nd

1) September...2 hits out of 4
2)October.....1 hit out of 3
3) November...3 hits out of 4
4) December..1 hit out of 2.. till 22nd
 Thus,7 hits out of 13
so, above 50%
Thus ,above odds.
 (As per odds for 6.1 + quakes it is slightly below 50%)
Amit

5 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So far you have 7 hits out of 15 predictions (.467) while I have 238 hits out of 450 predictions (.529)

My chance is beating your chance but they are BOTH just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
pl note 6.1 quake at Philippines today ie 29th December 2014.pl note the date and magnitude accuracy of my prediction
Are these all ,by chance or fluke or just out of the hat?
Need to think over with open and receiving mind.
If we have already determined that,the only possible theory is plate tectonics and further,if we strongly believe that the quakes can not be predicted,nothing can be done.
In that case, we need to stop all research on Earthquakes and stop spending tax payers money unnecessarily.
Only thing ,required will be to know fault line and to retrofit buildings
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The problem with focusing on retrofitting is that it's a huge burden on private property owners and they simply won't do it.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Here are my results from September 2014 to December 2014.
Here I have tried to find out ,how many date hits quake predictions are

There are total 15 dates predicted between Sept to December 2014

out of which five predictions are date hits

What are the odds of 6+ quakes for a date hit prediction?

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Odds are 0.549

In November my hits were 120/120 a perfect score.

Is that skill?

No, just chance.

Roger