Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Earthquake prediction for April 18

Hi
Here are probable dates for major Earthquakes (6+). The time window is + or - one day.
1)7th April....6.5
2)17th April ...6.7
3)21st April....7.1
4)29th April...6.4

Amit Dave

16 comments:

AMIT said...

Hi
6.3 quake at PNG,a date hit prediction

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes but I've decided to quit monitoring you.

It does no good and probably annoys you so no point continuing.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is not true.
In fact ,I am truly obliged ,to have you as my guide and mentor.
Regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you consider me a mentor why do you ignore my advice?

I've repeatedly shown you that planets and the moon have nothing to do with quakes yet year after year you continue to use them.

Roger

Unknown said...

Roger's patience has been impressive. A tour De force. Amit you need to show your working. Explain the thinking behind your predictions. Maybe consider that fault lines can be perturbed by tidal forces but only the strongest trigger events, and only when stress has accumulated . Kaikoura snapped at the moment when the moon at perigee was close to the zenith. The sun earth moon angle was as vertically orientated as it can be for nz. That to me was not a coincidence. So I'd suggest that your predictions should incorporate sun earth moon angle and the geometery relative to your prediction area, not just the planetary alignments, which is quite medieval by comparison. At least then you have a vector of sorts to direct at the surface. Just an idea but your previous mentor became frustrated by your failure to interact with science. So Amit it's time to put more flesh to the bones on your predictions. You up for that?

AMIT said...

Dear Unknown
Thanks for comments
I would like to check my earlier post dated May 12,2015
Or
You can search my blog with
"How to predict major Earthquakes"
Which will give some details.
Time and again I have seen these features for major quakes (8+)
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
All these criteria have mathematical calculations. Roger is aware of this.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Dear Unknown
Here are some 8.5+ quakes

1) 8.6, 11th April 2012,8.38 UTC, Northern Sumatra
when....Moon closer,Moon at maximum Declination,Mars and Venus closer and Venus at Maximum Declination
2) 9.1, 11th March 2011,5.46 am, at Honshu Japan

when.....Moon at maximum declination, Sun closer, All planets in 30 degree ( except Sat)

3)8.8 , 27th Feb 2010, 6.34 am , Bio Bio chile
when...Moon at Perigee, Mars closest and at Maximum declination, Saturn closer
All planets in 30 degrees

4) 8.6 , 28th March 2005, 16.09 UTC, Northern Sumatra
Jupiter Closest, Saturn high Declination, Jupiter opposes Sun
THOUGH ,I AM NOT SATISFIED WITH QUAKE CALCULATIONS
5) 9.1, 26th Dec 2004, 00.58 UTC , Northern Sumatra
when....Full Moon
Sun Closer
Moon at MAximumDeclinations
Sun at MAximumDeclinations
Saturn CLosest

Now ,you can see for your self, how many criteria are matching

REgards

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Count up all the times these conditions happened and all the Mag 8.5+ quakes.

I think you'll find the odds are much higher than you imagine and your 3 hits are
insignificant.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
These are all 8.5+ quakes since 1st Jan 2000. It can not be a coincidence.
Yes ,if we check four or more criteria ,on a given date ( Moon has the top priority) there will sure be a quake of 6 or even 6.5
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

There were 7 such quakes from 2000 to 2017

You hit 3 of them.

Just chance

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
What are the odds of getting hits in 8.5+ quake?
Is it 3 out of 7?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
What are the odds of getting hits in 8.5+ quake?
Is it 3 out of 7?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No, the odds are very small. There were only 8 of them in 17 years.

The question is how many guesses did you make.

If you make 8 predictions, chances are that you won't get any hits.

But if you make 2069 consecutive 3 day predictions you'll get all of them.

So how many days are covered by one or more of the conditions you described?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I looked at your 8.5+ post and noted all the indicators, finding 31 of them.

A 3 day window would use 93 days per year which would suggest a 1/4 chance.

You got 3/8 hits which is well within chance range, especially for such small samples.

Roger

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