Roger
Thank you so much for evaluating my prediction for last more than ten years.
We have seen considerable 6+ prediction are hit.
However, as per your evaluation it is below average. I do not think ,we can find a solution to this unless third party evaluation is done
I request you to check feasibility of checking such last 10years prediction either by USGS or European Seismology .
Regards
Amit
Thank you so much for evaluating my prediction for last more than ten years.
We have seen considerable 6+ prediction are hit.
However, as per your evaluation it is below average. I do not think ,we can find a solution to this unless third party evaluation is done
I request you to check feasibility of checking such last 10years prediction either by USGS or European Seismology .
Regards
Amit
14 comments:
Amit;
There's no one in the USGS who would do such a thing and I have no contacts elsewhere.
I can assure you there's nothing wrong with my program. It's your predictions that are the problem.
They don't work well enough to be useful. You need to modify your criteria. Can you list the things you use? I can compare them with the quakes to maybe refine them somehow.
It's worth a try. I can compute planetary positions and moon parameters (including distance).
Roger
Roger
Thanks
There are various criteria which I consider while predicting major quake
Following are criteria ,in descending order( top one are more important)
1) Moon closest/closer
2)Moon at maximum declinations
3)Moon at Equator
4)Full Moon,new moon
5)Sun closest/closer
6)Sun at Max Declinations
7) Jupiter closest/closer
8)Venus Closest/closer
9)Mars closest Closer
10) Jupiter at Max Declinations
11)Venus and Mars at Max Declinations
12)Moon Joins,opposes Jupiter,venus or Saturn
13) Saturn closest
14) Saturn at Maximum declinations
What we can do is with each criteria taken seperately ,what is result
More the criteria seen on a given date bigger is the quake
Amit
Roger
Better still would be take combination of first and second, first,second and third etc.....and find the quakes
Amit
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Amit;
Attached is a list of every day from 1973 to 2018.
All 6+ quakes are shown.
All predictions are shown (---- line)
All values are listed for sun and moon; RA, dec and distance.
All hits are counted, summed and compared to the expected number.
See if you can find a predictable pattern. I don't see one.
Roger
PS Rats; you can't do it here. I'll email it.
Amit;
My email address for you no longer works.
Have you changed it recently?
Roger
Roger
No
I will send a test mail
from my two accounts
Amit
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot
about this, like you wrote the book in it or something.
I think that you can do with a few pics to drive the message home a little bit,
but other than that, this is great blog. A great read.
I'll certainly be back.
It's great that you are getting thoughts from this post as well as from our argument made at this time. Looking forward special thing in สล็อ
Amit;
Two more missed quakes; 2024/04/22, 6.1 and 6.0
Roger
Roger
Yes
Those are 5 hrs earlier than window period.
Anyway ,it is better than 400 to 500 years window prediction by Seismologist
Amit
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