Evaluation of Earthquake prediction for the year 2022
Roger
Here are the results of one more year,2022,which you have recently evaluated
1) Out of 12 month ,prediction for 11 month were done (except July 2022)
2) Total dates predicted 55
3) Total hit prediction 31 ( with + or - 1 day)
4) Total quakes in 11 months (6+)..119
5) Total quakes in window period..50
Roger ,now compare your 4 years evaluation with this one year 2022
12 comments:
Amit;
I'm sorry but health concerns have interrupted my research efforts for awhile.
I'll try to get caught up as soon as possible but until then please be patient.
Roger
Amit;
I seem to have a gap in the data. Your last hit was Feb 26, 2022 but then a miss in Dec 9, 2022, some more misses ending with Dec 3, 2022
What I really need is a comprehensive list of ALL your predictions from 2021 (or earlier) to now. My attempts to compile such a list are unreliable, leading to incorrect evaluations which are undesirable to both of us.
Roger
Amit;
I repeat; I need a comprehensive list of all your predictions from as early as possible to the present. This searching out posts is wearing me out.
I can get all the quake information I need from NEIC.
Once I have both of these I'll be able to do a correct evaluation.
Roger
amit;
I recounted 2012 using only the predictions for which I had print messages.
I found 32 hits and 26 misses.
Roger
Amit;
Based on posted predictions you have 17 hits and 13 misses in 2021.
Roger
Amit;
I have your posted predictions for Jan thru Apr 2023 to add to what I already had so
I'll be trying to evaluate the predictio0ns up to then.
It will take some time, but I'll get it done asap and post the results.
Roger
amit;
For 2022 I count 32 hits and 26 misses
Roger
Amit;
I don't know if I've mentioned it before, but the required accuracy in quake prediction is 100%.
Since we're dealing with events that might kill thousands of people (or not), "maybe" is not
acceptable.
Roger
Roger
1) First step is to believe, it can be predicted, rest all will follow
2) With all Doplar Radar and Satellite imagery, can we predict rain accurately?
Say on 27th Feb 2024 , between 3 to 5 pm , 55 mm of rain will be witnessed?
Or
A tropical cyclone which you actually can see moving ,will hit X long and Y lattitudes with + or - 1 km accuracy?
Let plate tectonics in general and Seismologist in perticular believe, it can be predicted
Amit
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