Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Thursday, April 07, 2011

Japan ,7.1and Mexico,6.5 earthquakes on 7Th April 2011

hi
Please see my earlier blog prediction
1)8th April 2011 at 1430UTC
2) 11th April 2011 at 1130 UTC
please note two major earthquakes on 7th.at Japan and Mexico

First of all I would like to state Remi is right on target

I ,still feel ,one more quake will come today ie 8th August at about 1430 UTC
Now, some question to plate tectonics
1) How and why these two quakes Japan and Mexico on same day?
2) Are these quakes connected to each other in any way?
3) Are they on same plate boundary? if not how the maximum stress relieved on the same day?
4) Is this Japan quake is aftershock? or a separate shock?
5) Are some dates prone to major quakes/eruptions all over the Globe? Why are we not asking such key questions ? Why are we not so stringent in asking questions to plate tectonics? Think out of the box.What we know is not always correct.
Amit

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Quite Right Amit, Its about time we get answers instead of hot air.
Remi.

gb said...

you all have the questions but what are the answers.who will do this
gb

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

> 1)How and why these two quakes Japan and Mexico on same day?

Why not?

> 2)Are these quakes connected to each other in any way?

Probably not. If you think they are you must give evidence.

> 3)Are they on same plate boundry? if not how the maximum stress relieved on the same day?

No. And again, why not?

> 4)Is this Japan quake is aftershock? or a seperate shock?

A matter of definition, without detailed look at the fault mechanisms.

> 5) Are some dates prone to major quakes/eruptions all over the Globe?

No.

> Why are we not asking such key queations ?

Because we already know the answers.

> Whay are we not so stringent in asking questions to plate tectonics?

Because it fits all the facts better than anything else we know about.

> Think out of the box. What we know is not always correct.

But the box is where the evidence is kept and we're right far more often than wrong.

Roger

Anonymous said...

April not August,

AMIT said...

oh .sorry. It is April 2011 ,current month
AMit

AMIT said...

Roger
These are not convincing answers.

1) It takes hundreds of years to build up stresses over a fault line. What are the odds of occurring an event (major quake) with n numbers of major fault lines and with frequency running in hundreds of years,to occur on a given day?

2)Evidence rather reason is ,the given date is prone to major quakes.As the earth evolves along axis the resultant pull act on different locations, directly under the influence of pull .Hence quakes/places all over the globe on given date

3) same as 1) above

4)Ok . We will know it in couple of days, after detailed study

5) Time and again we have seen this, happening around the globe
If we see USGS 7 day quake map (2.5+),we can see some weeks have as high as 700 total quakes ,where as generally it is about 200 to 225 per week

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

Why such discrepancies?
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.1 earthquake at Kyushu ,Japan on 9th April 2011 as predicted.
Though,this s not all ,yet to come some quakes by 11th April 2011
Place not known
Amit

Anonymous said...

spot on AMIT a few hours off
Remi

AMIT said...

Remi
7.1(6.6?)to day ie 11th April 2011 eastern Honsu right on time ,may be few Hrs off.
Why are we not beleving such striking accuracy?
DO we still say it is by Chance?
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hahaha...Do you know many organisations admitting they are wrong or they have failed to deliver (value for money)? Keep smiling you may be surprised how quickly news spread ...

Anonymous said...

Respected Amit Sir and Roger Sir,

I want to mention that tectonic plate theory is correct , only thing is it can not be used for predicting quakes for short term ( like 5 day range or so.). That theory can be used to tell how stresses are developed and how they are released , faults and so many other important things. It does not give when ( in short terms ). It gives answers in years.
My point is we need to only prove that very major quakes can be predicted by short range of days , say 5 days range or so. We shall NOT disagree with plate tectonics at all . I have noted that small quakes happen on every day and they need not be predicted at all. Even medium quakes of 5 to 6 magnitude are fairly common and you need not predict it ( my theory shows that also ) ( as they can occur every day ; with whatever gravity and planets moon's positions with less magnitudes and high probability of 90% + ) .
Only very major like 7+ Mag quakes or so occur as per gravity rules and
planets, moon's position and sun's position ( as per distance, declinations, moon's phases etc) .
Japan quake of 11th March 2011 was one great example of low gravity and great quake.
Earth may give one more great quake ( of 8.5 + Mag to 9+ Mag ) in May 2011 ( total 90% probability for May ) . It may occur in 1st week of May ,
around 3rd May 2011 ( + - 3 days range here as special case ) . There is also a probability that it can occur around 10th May or full moon days like from 17th may to 21st May 2011.
Note that there is still 9% chance that it will occur in June OR 1% chance that one more great quake will not occur in June also. Note that location can NOT be predicted but nations which have quake-prone areas need to be alert ! So Japan , California, Indonesia , Peru , Chile and China need to be alert.

- Santosh Phadnis
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