Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Earthquake prediction for July 2013

hi
 Following dates, time ,magnitude and place are prone to quakes in July 2013. These are all probable dates place and magnitudes.There are all chances that,these may or may not come true.
  The note is put up as a precautionary measure

1) 8th July 2013..........0610 UTC.......6.4.......100 degree East or 80 degree West

2)22nd July 2013.......1810 UTC.....6.6...............ditto.........

Amit

17 comments:

AMIT said...

hi
The first quake ie 8th July 2013 at 100E or 80W
Todays quake at Indonesia

1)6.4 Magnitude(6.4 predicted)
2)100 East (100 East or 80 degree w predicted)
3)8th July ( 6th July)
I am aware,this can be well treated as a miss ,as per strict evaluation criteria.
Fingers are crossed. Hope no other quake comes on 8th
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Two big quakes 7.4 and 6.8 at PNG between 7/8th July as predicted.
Who can say such accurate prediction are juat by chance and a fluke.
Amit

Nitish Priyadarshi said...

What is PNG?. You said that earthquake occurred between 7/8 July. where it is?

AMIT said...

Nitish
PNG is Papua New Guina. 4 degree south and 154 degree East
pl see USGS web site for quake up dates

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
Amit

Mc4golf said...

5.5+ quakes in the last few days are on the rise. Today is the new moon. If solar activity continues to be moderate to high between now and the 1st quarter on Jul 15, why wouldn't you predict a Mag8+ quake. Almost all the 8+ quakes in the last 30 years have occurred on the 1st Quarter moon phase in the presence of moderate solar activity that has lasted for more than 2-3 days.

Mc4golf said...

The number of 5.5+ quakes has increased in the last few days due to the new-moon and several back-to-back days of moderate solar activity. Since most 8+ quakes have occurred on the 1st quarter moon phase in the presence of multiple back-to-back days of moderate solar activity, why wouldn't you predict a 8+ quake by Jul 15th? I personally give it a 30% chance if solar activity remains moderate, and due to Sunspot AR1785, it looks like it will, and it could be even be a X-class flare.

AMIT said...

Mc4golf

1) yes .You are right. I am conservative when it comes to predicting magnitude. Time and again ,it is noticed that, the magnitude is higher than the predicted
2)Yes again. There could be quakes on following dates and time. It is not always correct that, major quakes comes in first quarter of Moon phase. I am not conversant with Sun spots

a)16th July....0400UTC......6.3
b)21st July.....0300 UTC.....6.8
However, as 22nd date is already given.no point in giving 21st July again ( as window period is + or - one day)
The quakes on 21/22 may well exceed prediction magnitude
Amit

Anonymous said...

Mc4golf

The sunspot you speak of was an alpha gamma delta , it has now dropped slightly, it was bang on central when the M7.4 came along.

The M6.4 see the large coronal hole above center centralized also.

Amit works on planet positioning , but it is now nice to see him now see Solar activity as a factor.

The 1st of January sees the new moon/ moon closest, the sun closest and Venus in line also.

the few days after the 1st will also fall in the 1st quarter with Venus coming even closer.

This fast quarter brings quakes early in the morning normally (UTC)

The 1st few days in January always bring trouble.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

AMIT said...

hi
please note 7.3 earthquake on 15th 14 UTC ,at south sandwich island
Predicted date and time were 16th July 4.0 UTC.
yes I am conservative while predicting magnitude. May be I am too cautious while predicting magnitude
What is to be noted here is the theory of cycle quakes
Time and again I have stated and pointed out that, as Moon is the main trigger in earthquake occurrence, there are fair amount of chances that,another quake (major 6.5 or so) occurs exactly after 7 and half days to 8 days
This is because, Moon moves exactly 90 degrees during these 7/8 days and occupies another potent /triggering position 90 degree apart.
Thus, before and after any major quake,there are chances of pre and post shocks after 7 and half adys and 15 days.
This continues (15 days or 21 days ) till the potent positions created by major planets ( Jupiter/Venus/Sun) fades away
Thus, after any major quake,authorities should be cautious on 7/8 th and 15 days also
Check this theory,if anybody wishes
Amit

Mc4golf said...

Yes, Amit, July 16th quake occurred on first quarter but only because the 1st-quarter moon was preceded by moderate solar activity this time.

AMIT said...

hi
pl note 5.8 quake at NZ on 21st (Local time) against my prediction of 21/22nd.
watch the accuracy
Amit

Anonymous said...

Quakes every few minutes in NZ at present, been happening all day including a 6.5

AMIT said...

hi
Watch prediction accuracy in date ,time and magnitude.
predicted. 6.8 on 21st at 3.0 UTC

Actual
6.6 at NZ on 21st July in hours accuracy

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
China quake 6.0 (5.7 ?) ,more than 40 peopie dead
6.1 quake at prince edward. on 22nd july

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
one. moe.6.3 quake at Prince Edward Island to day ie 22nd July 2013
watch the accuracy of date , time and magnitude
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Nz herald says " recent earthquake of 6.6 is not on the known fault line"
How can science and seismology explain this with plate tectonic theory.
we are so blinded with bombating of plate tectonic theory( like TV advertisement) that we are not ready to pinpoint any drawback in the. theory
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hopefully no more big ones for central NZ as we are on edge since the 6.6 we have had over 1050 earthquakes since Friday (central Nz, Wellington )