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Friday, August 29, 2014

Earthquake Prediction for September 2014

hi
 My probable major earthquake dates for the month of September 2014 are as mentioned below
1)1st September 2014...............6.6

2)8th September 2014.............6.8

3)16th September 2014..........6.3

4)23rd/24th September 2014...........6.4 ( 23rd/24th means UTC TIME 1200 FROM 23rd to UTC 1200 NOON ON 24th)

window period + or - one day
magnitude window + or -0.3 (only for reference and should not be disqualified if quake is 6+ but out of window magnitude)

Roger is requested to post random dates here. If all 30 sets of dates are not practicable Roger is requested to post only 10 sets as a sample survey
 Actually, random dates should be posted prior to my dates. From next month we will do that.
 As my first date window period was approaching with in a day, I have posted the dates earlier
Amit

29 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Here are the 30 sets of predictions. The first number is the month, followed by 4 days. the window is the given day +/- 1 day.

Roger

09 02 06 10 14
10 02 14 18 26
11 02 14 18 22
12 06 10 14 26
01 02 06 18 22
02 06 14 18 22

09 02 10 14 22
10 02 06 10 26
11 02 06 14 18
12 02 06 10 22
01 06 10 18 26
02 06 14 18 22

09 02 14 22 26
10 06 14 18 22
11 06 18 22 26
12 06 14 18 26
01 02 06 14 26
02 02 06 10 14

09 06 14 18 26
10 02 06 10 26
11 02 14 22 26
12 02 10 18 26
01 02 10 14 22
02 06 10 18 22

09 06 10 18 26
10 06 14 22 26
11 10 18 22 26
12 06 14 18 22
01 02 06 10 26
02 02 14 18 22

09 02 14 18 26
10 10 14 18 26
11 06 14 18 22
12 02 06 14 18
01 02 06 14 26
02 02 14 22 26

09 02 06 10 26
10 02 06 14 18
11 10 14 18 22
12 02 06 10 14
01 02 06 22 26
02 02 06 14 22

09 02 10 18 26
10 02 06 14 18
11 06 14 18 22
12 10 14 18 26
01 06 10 14 18
02 02 14 18 26

09 02 06 22 26
10 06 18 22 26
11 02 10 14 26
12 02 14 22 26
01 02 10 18 26
02 06 14 22 26

09 06 10 22 26
10 10 14 18 22
11 06 18 22 26
12 02 06 10 22
01 02 06 14 18
02 02 10 18 22

09 02 06 10 18
10 02 10 18 26
11 06 14 18 26
12 06 10 18 22
01 10 18 22 26
02 06 10 14 22

09 10 14 22 26
10 10 14 18 22
11 10 18 22 26
12 06 14 18 26
01 02 10 14 22
02 02 06 22 26

09 06 14 18 22
10 06 10 22 26
11 02 06 22 26
12 10 14 18 26
01 02 10 14 26
02 02 06 10 18

09 06 18 22 26
10 06 14 22 26
11 02 10 18 22
12 06 14 22 26
01 02 06 22 26
02 02 10 14 26

09 06 10 18 26
10 02 10 14 26
11 06 10 18 26
12 02 10 14 26
01 06 10 14 26
02 02 10 22 26

09 06 10 22 26
10 02 06 18 22
11 02 10 14 18
12 02 10 14 18
01 02 06 22 26
02 02 06 18 22

09 02 14 18 22
10 02 10 14 22
11 10 14 18 26
12 02 06 10 22
01 10 14 22 26
02 02 10 14 22

09 06 10 14 22
10 02 10 18 22
11 02 14 22 26
12 02 06 10 22
01 06 14 18 26
02 02 06 18 26

09 02 14 18 22
10 10 18 22 26
11 06 14 22 26
12 02 06 14 18
01 10 14 22 26
02 02 18 22 26

09 02 10 22 26
10 06 18 22 26
11 02 06 14 22
12 02 06 10 22
01 02 06 14 26
02 06 10 14 26

09 02 14 18 26
10 02 06 18 22
11 10 18 22 26
12 06 10 18 22
01 06 10 14 26
02 02 14 18 26

09 02 10 18 26
10 10 18 22 26
11 06 10 14 26
12 02 10 18 26
01 06 14 22 26
02 02 10 18 26

09 02 10 14 22
10 02 06 18 22
11 02 14 18 22
12 06 10 14 26
01 02 06 10 26
02 02 18 22 26

09 02 14 18 26
10 14 18 22 26
11 02 06 18 26
12 02 10 14 22
01 06 14 18 22
02 10 14 22 26

09 02 10 14 26
10 02 06 22 26
11 10 14 18 26
12 02 10 14 18
01 02 06 10 22
02 02 06 10 22

09 06 10 22 26
10 02 10 18 22
11 02 10 18 26
12 06 14 18 26
01 02 06 10 26
02 06 10 14 22

09 02 10 14 26
10 02 06 10 14
11 02 06 18 22
12 06 10 14 26
01 10 14 18 22
02 02 14 18 22

09 06 14 22 26
10 02 10 18 22
11 02 14 18 22
12 02 06 18 26
01 10 14 18 22
02 02 06 14 18

09 02 10 14 26
10 06 14 22 26
11 06 18 22 26
12 06 10 14 18
01 02 10 14 22
02 06 14 18 26

09 06 10 18 26
10 10 14 22 26
11 10 14 22 26
12 06 10 22 26
01 02 10 18 26
02 06 14 18 22

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Just to clarify, when you say +/- one day you mean a 3 day window, right?

So what's this noon one day to noon the next day? That's 24 hours. Did you mean that or did you mean 36 hours either way from noon?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
24 Hrs on both side of Noon.ie total 72 hrs window
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Just three sets of dates (other than mine ) from my side
1) 4,11,19,28
2) 5,12,20,29
3) 6,13,21,27
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

24 hours either side of noon is 48 hours

And what are these?

Just three sets of dates (other than mine ) from my side
1) 4,11,19,28
2) 5,12,20,29
3) 6,13,21,27

I'm confused.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
23/24 noon means , UTC noon on 22 to noon on 25th
Nothing to be confused.
It is said that,my prediction are below odds,I just wanted to check ,how the other dates score against my dates.
If two of three are better than mine?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
I have one of two questions ,just out of curiosity
In the list of dates for September ,it is observed that some of the dates never appeared like
4,5,7,11,12,13,19,20,21,27,28,29
ie 12 dates out of 30 never appeared even once,whereas date like 26 appeared total 22 times in 30 sets.
Now the question is
1) What are the odds of 12 dates out of 30 dates not appearing even once if we take 4 dates at at times for 30 consecutive trials
And what are the odds of one date appearing 22 times in 30 trials?
Amit

AMIT said...


Roger
If you observe carefully, all the 12 dates (except one ) which are missed out in 30 random samples by your software ,are the same which I have posted ,as three sample sets.
what a chance!!!
Amit


Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The problem is that with the requirements for 4 predictions per month separated by one day to prevent overlap there are only 35 possible combinations of dates to choose from.

This leads to duplications.

So does your method based on moon positions which also follow a regular pattern.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Certain dates can't appear.

To get 4 predictions per month, 3 days long with a day in between there are only 7 possible locations to choose from.

The center dates are 2,6,10,14,18,22 and 26. 2 is the center of a window from 1 to 3. 4 is the day between thus cannot be chosen. The same for the other missing dates. There are a few days left which can't be used for lack of space.

The combinations of 7 things taken 4 at a time are 7!/4!(7-4)! which is 35

AMIT said...

hi
A volcanic eruption on sunday ,31st August 2014.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2014/08/31/watch-footage-of-icelands-ongoing-volcanic-eruption/

I am aware that, there could be objection on mentionimng Volcanic eruption on this blog.
However,time and again I have mentioned that, my theory is based on tidal pull and momentum change ,on magma, the vocanic eruption at any location will ease the built up tidal pull inside the Erath crust and hence ,smaller quakes after volcanic eruptions are noticed
Amit

Anonymous said...

The heavy quakes are due over the next 4-5 days.

11th and 13th mainly ...6.5+

AMIT said...

hi
6.7 quake at Guan on 17th ,as against
16th (6.3)
Amit

AMIT said...

6.2 quake at Argentina as predicted
pl see the accuracy
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Scores for September.

You had 3 correct

From my 30 random predictions

3 had 1 right
19 had 2 right
7 had 3 right
21 had 4 right

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
something wrong. Your total comes to 50 instead of 30
which are those 20 extra you have taken?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Hit two keys; last line is "1 had 4 right."

Not sure how to score this. Chance is 12/30 based on days covered.

There were 5 quakes so 2 hits is chance which is what the random group shows.

Small samples are unreliable

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
OK right.
Now you can see 3 out of 4 correct predictions are 7 out of 30 ie less than 25%
How can be this be treated as above my predictions?
If more than two third are above my results or better than my prediction ,than only it can be said my predictions are below odds!!!!!!!!!!!!

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I didn't say it was.

You win round one but it's the total score that matters.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
one more quake 6.2 at Alaska in window period.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Oho!

This changes everything!

The quake on the 26th was a miss for you but a hit for chance.

Now the score is

1 = 0
2 = 9
3 = 14
4 = 7

and your 3 is just chance.

Give up?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Sometimes I wonder ,why are you so keen on proving me wrong?
If I get few hits ,you say, it is a small sample ,and now You want me to give up?

By the way ,earlier you have mentioned

3 had 1 right

and now you say none has 1 score
How it can happen?
Either it has to increase or remain same (ie 3),how it can reduce with passage of two more days?

Is there any problem in your software?
or You want me to check physically?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Because you ARE wrong.

Those with one right got a hit and moved to two right.

Wouldn't hurt for you to check too. I can make mistakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Here are the results of my September results as against your 30 random dates

Total 6+ quakes...5
My results.. 3 hits out of 4

results of 30 random dates are as follows

1 hit.........6
2 hits........12
3 hits........10
4 hits.......2
...............
total........30

Now 10 +2 = 14 are better than my results out of 30. ie not even 50%
If my predictions are below odds ,at least 75% or more should be better than my dates
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I question your count.

Which 6 had only one hit?

According to my count, none did.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
The quakes were on 6,10,17, 24 and 25 th of September.

Yes ,the single hit numbers are five and not six (thus two hits numbers are 13 instead of 12)
the five are (serial number from top of your list)

2nd....2,10,14,22.....(hit 10)
3rd...2,14,22,26......(hit 26)
17th...2,14,18,22.....(hit 18)
19th..2,14,18,22......(hit.18)
23rd...2,10,14,22.....(hit 10)

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Those are all hits for 2 as well as 10.

Quake on Sep 3.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
There is no hit for date 2.
The quake on 4th was mag 6 .
1)Thus date 2nd is not hit
2) we count 6+ quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Looking over September again, you predicted 1, 8, 16 and 23

Quakes were 4, 6, 10, 17, 24 and 25 so you only got 2 hits which is what my random hits got the most.

Roger