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Friday, February 06, 2015

Roger- Your results

Roger
 I think , the way you have put forward is not correct
 If you say, my results are 50% ie 2 hits out of 4 in a month, it is mandatory for you to get 3 hits out of 4 in the months. Therefore the number of  persons getting three or more hit in months should be taken
 Your results are

A) September
  nil hit.......0
1 hit...6
2hit.....12
3 hit ....10
4 hits ...2
B) October...
nil....6
1.....17
2.....7
3.....nil
4....nil

C) November
nil..0
1...0
2...1
3 hit...12
4 hit...17

D) December

nil hit...2
1....14
2....8
3hit..6
4....nil

E) January 2015

nil hit...3
1....20.
2hit...7
3hit...nil
4 hit...nil
 Thus ,you have 3 or 4 hits  total 47
This is out of 30 persons for five months ie 150

Now 47/150  =31.3 %
 For ,you proving better than me ,you should only take in account three or four hits by a person ( total 30 fictitious persons)

Amit


14 comments:

AMIT said...

Roger
If you want to be more specific,you can check how many persons ,out of 30 have better score than me.
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
To the best of my knowledge the persons at sr no 2,10,17,18,19 and 20 have better score than me ie number of hits are
10,13,10,11,9 and 10 respectively. These are out of 19 predictions
Thus 6 out of 30 persons ie 20%random dates are better than my predictions
If my predictions are below odds,at least 75% persons should score better than me
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Let's look at this month by month.

Sep 2014, we made 4 predictions
You got 2/4 hits, I got 25/30 hits

Oct 2014, we made 3 predictions
You got 1/3 hits, I got 25/30 hits

Nov 2014, we made 4 predictions
You got 3/4 hits, I got 30/30 hits

Dec 2014, we made 4 predictions.
You got 2/4 hits, I got 25/30 hits

Jan 2-15 we made 3 predictions
You got 1/3 hits, I got 16/30 hits

Feb 2015 we made 1 prediction.
You got 1/1 (maybe), I got 20/30 hits

I'm defining a hit as your score or better so if you got 2/4 a hit for me is 2, 3, or 4

Do you see a month where you did better than me?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It's not necessary for me to beat you by a wide margin. All I have to do is show that my chance scores are as good as your scores.

That proves your results are just by chance and not due to some skill or valid method.

Check with a mathematician.

Roger.

AMIT said...

Roger
If you a statement that
"my predictions are below odds" at least two third should be able to score more than my score.
we have following persons scoring more than me in each month (out of 30)
Sept.....12
Oct........7
Nov.......17
Dec......6
Jan 15....7
........................
total 49 out of 150 ,scored more than me
ie roughly one third.
Amit

Anonymous said...

http://quakeearthquakepredictions.blogspot.com/

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I don't know where you're getting this 2/3 better business but it's wrong.

If I can equal or better your results by chance that's proof enough that YOUR results are just due to chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Even if we take 48 hours window for my predictions ( ie the date of prediction + 12 Hrs on either side, I get 9 hits
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The odds on a hit for a 6.1+ quake in 2 days is 0.412

9/19 is 0.474

The difference is not significant.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

5.7 today.

You missed it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Correction; 6.7

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Wow, 3 qualifying quakes today.

Too bad you missed them.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
The 6.8 Japan quake is on the threshold of window ( 43 minutes earlier than predicted)
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

A 6.5 today gives you a hit.

It doesn't help. You lost the competition, doing no better than my random predictions.

Your method does not work.

Roger