Can earthquakes be predicted?

Total Pageviews

Search This Blog

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Roger your evaluation of aftershocks ( as per my cycle quake theory)

There were 215 main quakes (7.5+) and  413 aftershocks
in the 10x10 degree square centered on each main quake

 9  8  2  3  0  2  1  2  1  3  4  2  2  0  0  1  3  2  1  1  1  1  2  3 
 3  1  0  2  3  2  1  1  0  2  1  0  1  1  0  1  0  1  1  1  0  1  1  0 
 0  1  0  0  3  1  2  0  1  1  1  3  1  0  0  1  1  0  2  0  0  2  0  0 
 0  1  0  2  0  0  0  1  1  3  4  0  1  1  1  0  3  2  1  2  0  0  0  2 
 2  0  0  0  0  1  1  2  0  2  0  0  2  0  2  1  0  1  1  0  1  0  2  1 
 1  2  2  0  0  0  1  0  1  0  2  2  2  1  2  0  3  1  0  1  3  1  0  1 
 1  3  1  1  1  1  0  0  2  0  3  2  0  1  0  0  1  2  0  1  0  1  2  5 
 5  3  0  3  0  1  0  1  3  1  1  0  0  0  0  2  3  0  1  2  1  3  1  1 
 1  1  1  4  2  4  2  0  1  1  0  1  1  3  0  0  0  2  2  2  1  3  4  2 
 2  0  1  1  0  1  0  0  2  1  0  3  1  0  0  0  1  2  1  3  1  0  1  1 
 1  1  1  1  2  2  0  0  2  1  2  1  2  1  1  0  0  1  1  1  0  2  0  1 
 1  0  0  0  0  1  0  1  1  0  1  1  0  0  1  0  1  2  2  1  1  0  1  2 
 2  1  0  1  0  3  1  2  2  2  1  2  0  1  1  0  1  1  2  0  3  1  0  0 
 0  0  0  1  2  2  0  1  3  0  0  1  2  3  2  1  0  2  2  2  3  1  0  2 
 2  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  2  1  2  0  1  1  3  0  0  1  1  1  1  1  0  1 
 1  0  1  0  0  2  0  0  0  1  1  2  0  1  1  1  0  1  2  3  0  0  0  1 

 
For viewers ,let me explain
 The evaluation of my -cycle quake theory- for aftershocks ,done by Roger Hunter is posted above

A) My theory says that, after a major quake of 7.5+ , at any location ,the chances of two (first and second highest) aftershocks are highest
1) after 12 Hrs
2)after 24 Hrs
3) on 7th or 8th day
4) on 14/15th and some times even on 16th day

B) Above table shows output of evaluation done by my friend Roger Hunter
   Rows (horizontal lines relates to days-first raw for first day and 16th raw for 16th day
   columns(vertical lines) pertains to hours of that particular day
numbers mentioned shows the numbers of quakes highest ( first or second) on that Hour of that day
  
now look

 Leaving first hour of quake we have
on 11th hour.....4 quakes
   12th Hrs......2
   13th Hrs......2
      24th Hrs...........3 quakes
     25th Hrs .........3 quakes


Also watch 7th day ,24th Hrs and 8th day first hr score ,which is 5 aftershocks in an Hr

Roger,what more proof you need.

 watch 11/12th ,24th and 25th hour scores ,much higher than any one /two hrs scores

on first day we have......54 quakes
   second day we have.....28 quakes


 on 7th day we have.......28 quakes
    and 8th day we have....32 quakes

on 15 h day we have ......20  quakes
   16th day we have...... 18 quakes

watch the quakes

except on first day ,the 7th and 8th day scores much more

Amit

13 comments:

AMIT said...

even 14th day we have 30 quakes
In fact, we need to consider the same aspect of Moon ( which either Sun, Jupiter ,or Venus ) to occur again after 7 th or 15th day.
If it is with sun ,clear days of 7 and half and 15 days. But if with others ,it mat very from 7/8th to 14/15 or even 16th
So ,while predicting each case has to be dealt separately
Amit

AMIT said...

On the same line ,I expect a 6+ aftershock eighter on 3rd or 4th May 2015 at Nepal
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You said;

> Leaving first hour of quake we have

> on 11th hour.....4 quakes
> 12th Hrs......2
> 13th Hrs......2

but your prediction was more after the 12th hour.

> 24th Hrs...........3 quakes
> 25th Hrs ..........3 quakes

But so what? 3 quake hours are all over the place.

> Also watch 7th day ,24th Hrs and 8th day first hr score ,which is 5 aftershocks in an Hr

Yes and those are the highest 2 hours of all, excluding the first two.

> Roger,what more proof you need.

Quite a bit more actually. These differences are not large enough to be convincing.

> watch 11/12th ,24th and 25th hour scores ,much higher than any one /two hrs scores

True in this case but what would cause it?

> on first day we have......54 quakes

Yes.

> second day we have.....28 quakes

I count 24 quakes.

> on 7th day we have.......28 quakes

Yes.

> and 8th day we have....32 quakes

Yes but on the 9th day we have 38 quakes.

> on 15 h day we have ......20 quakes

Yes.

> 16th day we have...... 18 quakes

Yes.

None of this proves anything. These numbers are not showing a useful pattern.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Time and again I have mentioned this theory.Now I will give logic and reason
As ther my theory ,major quakes are trigered by Moon ,provided other indicators are present
Now after 12 hrs ,the same location moves 180 degrees due to Earths axial rotation.Henceagain the same force/pull
Simlarlt after 24 hrs it comes at same location
(actualy 24 hrs + 40 minutes)

After 7 /8th day Moon moves 90 degrees and again creates pull

After 14/15 th or even 16th day Moon moves 180 degrees and again aspects the indicators.
After 15 days the original indicrors (like Juoiter closer,venus closer or at Max declinations ) fades away. And quakes stops
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Main issue is to see when again Moon aspects the same indicator.
If is fast moving (venus) ,it will take more time for Moon to create aspects
If is slow moving (JUpiter)it may take less time for Moon to catch up.
If it is sun ,the time is fix 7/8th ,14/15th day
Thus it very from 7/8 th or 9th . ...14/15 or 16th.
Each case has to be checked as per main indicators
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Seems to me we've been thru all this before.

I can compute all of those things and more and they don't correlate with quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
But you see striking results here itself
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No I don't. I see an occasional good hit by chance but never more often than chance would allow.

If you can tell me exactly what you use as indicators I can test them against quakes and settle this once and for all.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) simple chsnce is
16 days × 24 hrs = 384
Hence 413 quakes÷ 384 hrs= just above 1
Thus all those quakes more than 2 per hrs are well above odds

what do you say for 4 and 5 quakes

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Interesting problem and one I'm not equipped to solve so I've submitted it to a higher authority.

Aftershocks are not uniformly distributed so the usual tests don't apply.

I'll let you know what I find out.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I will wait for your comments/reply

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

My higher authority didn't have anything off the top of his head but I do have a possible explanation.

The only thing that really concerns me is the pair of 5 count hours at the end of day 7. I'm going to search for the quakes responsible for that.

I'll keep you posted.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thanks
Amit