Hi
The probable dates for earthquake in March 2019 are as follows
1) 7th.......6.3
2)15th.......6.4
3)21st.......6.8
4)28th.....6.6
The window period is + or - one day
Amit
The probable dates for earthquake in March 2019 are as follows
1) 7th.......6.3
2)15th.......6.4
3)21st.......6.8
4)28th.....6.6
The window period is + or - one day
Amit
29 comments:
Roger
Watch out
6.3 quake near NZ today ie 6th.
Predicted date is 7th
Is this a hit prediction?
Amit
Amit;
Hit today but missed 2 others earlier.
Roger
Roger
So you do not count 1st March 7 quake at Peru as hit though predicted date was ,28th Feb 2019
Amit
Amit;
In Feb you got 1 hit (14th) and missed 3 other quakes.
In Mar so far you had hits on 1st and 6th, missed 2nd
Just chance.
Roger
Amit;
mag 6 today; hit
Roger
Roger
6.4 quake at Bolivia on 15th March .
A date hit and magnitude hit prediction
Amit
Have you ever considered writing an e-book or guest authoring on other
sites? I have a blog based on the same topics you discuss and
would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my viewers would value
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feel free to shoot me an email.
Amit;
Date hit today Vanuatu
Roger
Hi
6.3 quake at Vanuatu on 20th March 2019 ,a date hot prediction
Amit
Amonymous;
are you talking to me or Amit?
Roger
Hi
A series of hit quake predictions.
How many more required to just make a point ,and make people in general and seismologist in perticular to believe that, major earthquakes can be predicted
Amit
Amit;
It's not how many hits you have. It's how significant they are.
A hundred hits sound impressive until it's compared to the 1000 misses.
Roger
Amit;
Quake today, Colombia, miss
Roger
Amit;
Quake today; miss
Roger
Roger
You need to change the word -miss-,for -not predicted-
When I give a date and quake do not occur ,it is a miss
But where I have not predicted how can it be a miss?
How can a student fail in an exam which he did not appear?
This may misguide the readers as a genuine miss
Amit
Amit;
When you predict a quake on a certain day and a quake happens on another day what else can it be but a miss?
But whatever we call it, it counts against you.
Roger
Roger
I beg to differ.
My evaluation should be restricted to my window period only. If a quake occurs in window period it is a hit, if not a miss
What you are doing is evaluating me out side my window period,which is not fair
Amit
Amit;
Ok, consider this. Two people are predicting quakes.
Person 1 makes 4 predictions in a month. There are 5 quakes that month and he catches 2 of them.
Person 2 also makes 4 predictions and that month there are 20 quakes but he also catches only 2 of them.
Who is the better predictor?
Roger
Roger
You can not compare two ,as the facts could be anything ...like out of 20 quakes 16 could be within few hours at the same place and all are aftershocks
Amit
Amit;
The facts are as stated.
Which one is the better predictor?
Roger
Hi
Yet another date hit
6.1 quake at Kuril Island on 28th
How many date hits are required to prove the point
Amit
For all those who doubt my prediction,here is last year post (from FB memory) a date hit ,exa exactly one year back
Amit
A 6.6 quake at Russia to day. A date hit and magnitude hit prediction.Watch the accuracy of prediction. Pl see
http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/
Amit;
Of all your predictions, how many are hits?
That's the measure of your ability, not a single hit by itself.
Roger
Roger
You have all data,and know it better
It is well above odds
Amit
Amit;
The last big test I ran on you was all data thru 2013.
You made 220 predictions and got 79 hits.
The odds on a hit were 0.330 so 72.5 hits were expected by chance.
You were slightly better than chance but not enough to be taken seriously.
Roger
Amit;
Quake on the 28th, a hit.
Roger
Amit;
Score for March 4/4 predictions correct! A good month.
But only 5 of 12 quakes in windows.
Just chance.
Roger
Amit;
I started adding to my quake file and discovered a big gap in the quake file.
This will take some time to fix so I can update your evaluation.
Roger
Roger
Ok
Thanks
Amit
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