EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND PREDICTION (6+) QUAKES
As per guidelines of NEPEC , I am hereby submitting my earthquake prediction theory and dates with time ,magnitude and locations
I am basically, a mechanical engineer from Mumbai, India. The passion for earthquake prediction was started way back in 1993 when great Latur, Maharashtra earthquake occurred. September 30th 1993. Since then I am maintain a blog wherein major (6+) quakes are predicted and dates with magnitudes are uploaded well in advance. The locations are not uploaded as it is prohibited by Indian Disaster Act 2005
You can refer to my blog https://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com
My theory can be summarized in a nutshell like this
Before I give my theory in nutshell here are two predictions of major earthquakes
8th December 2022 (UTC time)..(window period + or – on e day as per UTC)
Magnitude—6.7 R scale (+ or -0.5 magnitude)
Data base -as per USGS
Time - 04.15 UTC
Locations –
60 degree west and/or 120 degree East Longitudes ( with + or -20degree longitudes)
And /or at locations where sun /Moon are rising /setting at time UTC 04.15 on 8th December 2022
Like..
Ie Alaska …147 d E, 60 d N ( with + or – 10degree)
Japan ….142 d E , 44 d N ( ditto)
Italy ….10 d E…40 d N (ditto)
Argentina . 70 d w , 47 d S(ditto)
Russia …..155 d E , 55 d N (ditto)
23rd December 2022 (UTC time) …( + OR – ONE DAY)
Time .. 10.00 UTC
Magnitude ….6.9 (+ or -0.5 ) r scale
Data base …USGS
Location
20 degree East and /or 160 degree West longitudes ( with + or – 20degree longitudes
And /or locations where the Sun/Moon are rising/setting at the time 10.00 UTC on 23rd December 2022
Ie
Peru….70 degree W, 22 degree S .. ( + or – 10 degree)
Brazil….60 d W ,10 degree S ..( ditto)
Indonesia….110-degree East, 2-degree N (ditto)
China ….90 d E , 40 d N…(ditto)
New Zealand ….165 degree E,45 degree South(ditto)
Theory
Earth consists of an upper Crust of about 100 km thick and (Lithosphere ) and a ductile hot Asthenosphere of about 660 kms thick ness .Then comes lower mantle, outer core and inner core
What, I believe causes an earthquake (major6+) is the tidal pull exerted on ductile Asthenosphere of around 660 kms . The Moon ,Sun and major planets like Jupiter , Mars ,Venus and Saturn (in that order) also exert pull on magma as well as upper crust .
When the tidal pull exceeds a critical limit, the magma breaks the crust partially and an earthquake occurs. If the pull can break open the mouth of a volcano an eruption will occur. So both major quake and major eruption occurs on a given potent dates
Since tidal pull is inversely proportional to the distances between two planets /bodies Moon have maximum tidal pull and most of the quake triggers are decided by the position of the Moon.
Thus the theory says that ,on a given potent date (as decided by this theory) more 6+ major quakes will occur all over the globe . Not only that ,the chances of a volcanic eruption is fairly high during these dates.
Deciding the potent date/s
First in a given month check whether the distances of Sun and major planets. If Sun and major planets (Jupiter, Mars, Venus and Saturn in that order are closer/closest , the month has potency to produce 6+ magnitude quakes
The minimum distances are as mentioned below
Sun …….0.983 AU (Astronomical unit ie average distance of earth to Sun)
Moon….57 ER (earth radius)
Jupiter … 3.9 AU
Mars…. 0.52 AU
Venus….0.28 AU
Saturn….8.5 AU
Now in a given month if more than one planet is closer/closest, it is more potent
Once the distances are known ,check whether in that given month any planet is at maximum declinations or closer to maximum declination (N or S).
Also check whether Sun is at Max Declinations Nort or South
Maximum Declinations of planets and stand still positions of the planets are very important because immediately after that ,it will change the direction from North to South or south to North. What actually happens is, due to this change in directions the tidal pull direction also suddenly changes and there will be an imbalance and jerk in the molten magama due to retardation or acceleration. This ultimately induce imbalance in the magma and it breaks the crust ,causing an earthquake
Deciding the date and time
Now the exact date is decided by the most powerful and fast moving Moon .
When Moon joins or opposes Sun , Jupiter , Mars, Venus ( in that order ) it creates a trigger for quake. The date on which Moon is closest during month and at maximum declinations North or South these dates are also potent Often we have seen that, full Moon and New Moon are more powerful for major quakes. Eclipses are still more powerful
Thus, the date and time will be decided by Moon
The time in UTC can be decided when Moon exactly Joins/opposes Sun /Jupiter,/Mars/ Venus ( whichever is potent ie closer and having maximum declinations)
(c ) Deciding magnitude
Magnitude in Richard scale can be decided by the number potency Moon ,Sun and other planets have on that day and time .
If the Sun is closest and at Maximum declination, say i n December or even during November to March (next year), Moon closest (57 ER ) and maximum declination possible (+ or -27 d degrees), Jupiter , Mars ,Venus and Saturn are closest and at maximum declination ,the quake could be well above 8.5 magnitude
Actually I am planning to make a software which will take in to account app these aspect and give tidal pull . However ,incorporating change in momentum due to direction change of planets is still an issue
Deciding locations
Location of major quakes can be decided by the position of Moon and Sun in that order, where they are at Zenith and/or Nadir longitudes at the decided time with + or – 20 degrees of margin
As tidal pull is equally applicable to both side of the globe Zenith and Nadir. both side longitudes are prone to major quakes
Further, the locations where Moon /sun are rising and/or setting at the time in UTC decided as above, are also prone to major quakes. This is because, the low tide crust pull can break the crust
It is true that ,the quakes occurs mostly at plate boundaries . But this is because the plate boundaries are weaker than crust and they give way earlier when tidal pull is nearby or just below the crust
In fact, what I believe is ..
THE PLATES ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND THAT THE QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES
There are various shortcomings of the plate tectonics, but it is not the topic to be discussed now
There are some inherent problems in pin pointing only one location for amjaor,6+ quake, by my theory. What we can find out is where ( longitude) the pull will be at the trigger time . If the crust is solid, it may not break at trigger time . It may take few hours more or less than the trigger time and in the meantime the locations shift due to Earth rotation
Thus, the location fixing is very dynamic process
WHAT IS FINALLY TO BE GIVEN AS A GIST IS….
DECIDE MONTH, DATE AND TIME AS PER ABOVE THEORY
LOCATE ZENITH AND NADIR POSITION OF MOON /SUN AT THAT TIME
THE LONGITUDES OF ZENITH AND NADIR POSITION OF MOON /SUN, WITH + OR -20 DEGREE OF LONGITUDES IS PRONE FOR MAJOR QUAKES(6+)
THE LOCATIONS WHERE MOON /SUN ARE RISING /SETTING AT GIVEN POTENT TIME ARE THE LOCATIONS FOR MAJOR QUAKE ALSO OCCUR
TO REMAIN ALERT , WITH + OR – ONE DAY WINDOW PERIOD OF POTENT TIME AND DATE, KEEP A WATCH AT FAULT LINES ,WHEN THEY ARE HAVING MOON/SUN RISING OR SETTING
After shocks and cycle quake theory ( pre shocks also)
For predicting aftershocks at the same ( nearby + or – 500 kms) watch
The time exactly after 12 hrs of major quake(+ or – 1 hr)
24 hrs after major quake ( + or – 2 hrs)
7th /8th day , when Moon moves 90 degrees after major quake
14th/15th day when Moon moves 180 degrees after major quake
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