Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, June 12, 2011

Christchurch earthquakes(6.0) on 13th June 2011

hi
Please see my earhquake prediction for June 2011,wherein date 12th June 2011 was mentioned for 6.5 quake.Today ,we have eathquakes that ratteled Christchurch again,including one having 6.0 nagnitude
The accuracy is + or - one day.
I do not know ,why we should not think out of the box and promote the research which is not as per eaxisting theory of plate tectonics.
The existing theory firmly believes that ,the quakes can not be predicted.Hence do not encourage any such earthquake prediction research.One can see the track records of various date hit predictions(including the infamous Feb 2011 christchurch quake of 6.3) on this blog
There are few more quakes expected till 15/16th June 2011.PLEASE NOTE- LOCATIONS ARE NOT PREDICTED.
As of to day,pin pointing location is difficult ,nevertheless if time and resources are provided it can be done(in principle)
Amit

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

There is Total Eclipse on 15th June in Portugal and your mentioned dates are 15th/16th June.

Is the Eclipse got to do with earthquakes.

Thank you.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Thinking out of the box is all well and good but results are what count.

Your results are no better than throwing darts at a calendar.

Roger

Anonymous said...

They have revised 13th June earthquake, now it is classified as a 6.3. This is according to Canterbury Quake Live

Anonymous said...

If you don't predict locations you're wasting your time. There are significant earthquakes nearly every day somewhere in the world.

Anonymous said...

Amit Sir

please try for 7 mag and above mag quake prediction only , so that you can beat it's chance ( 1/ 18 approx.) consistently ( 20 quakes in 365 days ) . For 6 mag quakes chance is 1/6 ( 60+ quakes in 365 days ) and it is not at all beatable in this format what Roger Sir or any other scientist expect .

best regards

Santosh Phadnis
_________________

AMIT said...

Hi
One more quake of 6.4 at Indonesia on 13th June 2011.
The quake as given by local agency is 6.9 and by USGS it is 6.2(6.4?)

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2077580,00.html
How come there are so much diffence in the calulation of magnitude?
I wonder ,if with instruments and after the quake has occured,if the magnitude varies with person to person or place to place ,how do we expect that,the prediction could be exact ?
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Magnitude is an average and changes as more data is included in the averaging.

It also depends on the network doing the calculation and the type of scale they are using.

That's why it's best to wait a month or so before drawing any conclusions.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
On 12th June ,there was an eruption at Eritrea ,causing delays in flight at London

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate+News/-/539550/1180980/-/rpm7lx/-/
The dates predicted for major quakes are also prone to volcanic Eruptions
Watch 15/16th June 2011
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
on 15/16th June 2011( 16th June 00.30 UTC) there was a quake of 6.6 at Papa new Guiena as predicted

http://wireupdate.com/wires/18185/strong-earthquake-rocks-papua-new-guineas-new-britain-no-reports-of-damage/
How long we will say ,these date hits (6.5+) are just a chance or fluke or just throwing a dart on a board?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

How long?

As long as it's true.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Let people decide.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Don't be silly.

It's not a matter of opinion. This isn't a popularity contest.

It's a matter of fact.

Roger

AMIT said...

roger
thanks for your comments
regards
AMit

Anonymous said...

Amit Sir,

Yes, there was a quake "Magnitude 6.6 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2011 June 16 00:03:36 UTC " ,

but still it was within the chance ( probability only ) for that prediction.

We need to be able predict 7+ mag quakes correctly and consistently to beat the chance , which is 1/18 for that or less for higher quakes. Note that in the current format ( expected by scientists Roger or others) it is not possible to beat chance 1/3 to 1/5 when we try to predict 6+ mag quakes ( they are too many in all years ).

These 7+ to 9 mag quakes will be
possible around 12th and 26th Oct. ,around 10th and 24th Dec. 2011 as per my theory. Nov 2011 is also possible .
Till now , in may and June , no 7+ mag quake occurred as per theory ( this quake not occurring chance was 1% only ! Still that 1% chance has taken place so far :-) That's probability !

North India got mild quake ( 4.9 Mag ) today.

best regards

Santosh Phadnis
_________________

AMIT said...

Hi
Todays (24th June 2011 has confirmed the quake of 30 June / 1st July 2011.
As per cycle quake theory quakes occur in 7/8th days sequences ,till the potential fades out
We have 15/15th June + 7/8th day 23/24 th June (Fox island 7.4 and Sntacruz iceland 6.3.
Now next cycle quake is 30 June /1st July 2011 (7.0)
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you cover enough days your hit count goes up but the probability goes up too and the value goes down.

You could predict a quake every week and get them all but the value would be ZERO!

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Volcano erupts in Indonesia on Sunday

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-07/03/c_13962937.htm

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The answer to your poll is

Yes, maybe some day, but not the way you're doing it.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
NZ quake today ie 5th July 2011.USGS says it as 5.3 where as other local agencies put it as 6.5.
I do not know which one is correct.
Is it that,we can not measure the quakes correctly?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-07/05/c_13966565.htm

Amit

Anonymous said...

what I was looking for, thanks

AMIT said...

Roger
Mumbai city receives nearly 2500 mm of rainfall every year. We ,in Municipal corporation clean the drais and oppen gutter during April and May every year.
During June to September every year we provide portable deisel pump sets at flooding spots.
As I am inchrge of Engineering Vigilence dept of Mech and Elec wing it becomes very hectic every year during these period.
Hence I could not up load July dates as a seperate blog
Nevertheless pl see my annual dates

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/2011/01/earthquake-prediction-dates-7-for-year.html
where July 9 is mentioned as 7+ quake date.
Santosh ,here is clue for cycle quale.June 30/ 1st July 2011 was given for June .This is yet another cycle quake

please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and go to calender for July 2011

I believe,there will be yet another 6.5+ either to day 8th or 9th July 2011
Roger, even if we take 9 th as my date(predicted ) for 7+ quake, what are the odds of getting hit with + or - 2 days ?( because it occured on 7 th July 2011)
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One ore at Vanuattu,7.0 at midnight between 3rd and 4th September 2011.
Have anybody thought ,why there are so many 6.5+ quakes in last 3 days? OR It is by chance?
It was earlier pointed out that ,whenever bigger planets changes tha direction from direct to retro gate or vice a versa ,the chances og bigger quakes increases
Watch till September 2011 end,as Jupiter has changed the direction in first week if September
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
I am sorry if I have hurt somebody in the process.
I apologize for the same.However when I am not giving place there is no question of creating the panic.How if seismologist and geologist predict like this(and they did it several time)there will be a major quake at certain place either tomorrow or after400 years?what do you call this?
A prediction?
Any way sorry once again.

Anonymous said...

Why don't you stop your pointless rambling of crap the lot of ya ! Christchurch is having non stop quakes 46 yesterday alone lowest being 3.8 highest 6.0 so just shut up while we are going through all these times yeah !

AMIT said...

sir
It is up to you to have a look at this blog or not.
The reason there were more quakes on 2nd Jan uary 2012 at Christchurch is ,the date was prone for quakes.
We are not bothered for quakes less than 4 magnitude
Amit