Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Earthquake of 6.4 at Bio Bio Chile ,on 1st June 2011

hi
Please see my earlier post

http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=33253361&postID=5443926683415643155
Where in a major quake of 6.5+ was predicted

and a quake of 6.4 at Bio Bio Chile on the predicted date ie to day 1st June 2011
Do we call it a date hit?
I am afraid one more is to come between 19 to 21 UTC to day ie 1st June 2011(Place not known)

Between 1991 to 2010 there are 1203 quake of 6.4 and above ie on an average there are 60 quakes of 6.4+ per year
the odds for date hit are 60/365 ie 1/6th ie 0.17
Any comments?
Amit

20 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Very good!

The odds are actually much smaller than that because you're not allowing for multiple quakes per day.

However, all it proves is that any odds can be beaten - by chance.

Roger

Anonymous said...

june 21,2011

sherdunc22 said...

june 21,2011

AMIT said...

Roger
Thanks
we have several times date hit predictions.when the odds are less than 20% , I think,it can not be stated as -by chance-
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Of course it can.

The odds on a lottery are 1 in 250,000 yet someone wins it.

The odds on your prediction are about 1 in 100. How many predictions have you made?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1)The problem comes when the same person wins the lottery twice or thrice
2)there are several date hits,some of them are
a)30th March 2010-Andoman--6.4
b)14th April 2010-china-6.9
c)9thth May 2010- Sumatra-7.4(predicted 10th )
d)27th May 2010-1714 UTC-7.4 Vanuattu (predicted 28th May )
e)15Th Jan 2009-6.7,7.4 Date hit
F)18Jan 2009-6.4
g)9th FEb 2009-6.0
h)15 April 2009--6.3
i) 24Th May2009---6.0
j)16 Th June 2009--6.0
k)4Th Oct 2009--6.6
l)11Th Oct 2009-6.0,6.6 (on 10th)
m)13Th Oct 2009-6.5,6.0,6.4
n)24Th Dec 2009--6.3
o)26th DEc 2009--6.1
P)12Th June 2010-7.5,6.1
Q)23Rd July 2010-7+ Quakes -three
P)10Th August-2010-7.5 vanuattu
r)12th August 2010,1154UTc-6.9 (13th Predicted
S)13th August 2010-7.2 Mariana- date hit
t)29Th Nov 2010-6.6 Japan
u)21Th DEc2010- Iran -6.5
Japan 7.4
Indonesia -6.2
v)28th Dec 2010-6.3 Fiji -date hit
w) 19th Jan 2010- Pak-7.2 date hit
x)11th FEb 2011- Bio Bio-7.0 date hit
Y)22nd FEb 2011- 6.3 Christ church ,Date hit
Roger we have run out of alphabets for serial numbers
How many date hits are required to be qualified as -above average?
Do we call all these fluke? or by Chance?
If these are by chance than anybody and everybody can do it
Why odds and chance should favour me alone?
Amit

Anonymous said...

USGS have this quake as 5.1.
I was wondering where you get your magnitudes from?

AMIT said...

hi

Please see the USGS link

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

The quake originaly mentioned as 6.4 now reduced to 6.2 at 12.55 UTC on 1st June 2011
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit Sir,

Congrats once again. I suggest you do not worry too much about odds , chance, significance etc. You have good theory to predict quakes. Keep beating the odds and that will prove that it was not a chance . Also do research to predict location of quakes that is more important.
I will like to mention that as per my theory of gravity of planets, Moon's and positions of them and quakes on Earth , there is a 90% possibility of very major i.e 7 + to 9 mag quakes around following days ( + - 2 days from each of those days ) in year 2011 ( tsunami is not predictable ) .
days are
1st June , 15th June , 12th Oct , 26th Oct. 10th Dec and 24th Dec ( year is 2011 for above days ) .
Note that location can NOT be predicted by this theory.

Best regards

Santosh Phadnis
India.
__________________

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes and some people have indeed won the lottery more than once.

Your list of hits means nothing without the total list of predictions and the probabilities of each.

You are not doing better than chance in the instances I have tested and you need to resume working with me.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Hi Santosh;

You too need to resume working with me on my program for your predictions.

Neither of us can make any definitive statements on your method until then.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Total predicted dates for years
1) 2009-------30
2) 2010------43
3) 2011-------10 till May

ie 83dates were predicted from Jan 2009 to May 2011
Now about 30 odd date hits in 83 dates (17 of them are 6.5+ date hits ) predicted over two and half years
Amit

Anonymous said...

ahhh, I see it now!! I had just been looking at the map, USGS didn't put that on on the map. Thanks.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

According to my lists you have 137 predictions from 2006 to 2011 and so far, 29 hits.

These are full hits using a 3 day window and a +-0.3 mag range but since many of them are for smaller quakes the probabilities are much higher, over 50% in some cases.

Not nearly as good as you think.

Roger

AMIT said...

ROGER
Something wrong here
Say for example I will give one year -2009- complete data haere


Here is the complete list of my 2009 prediction ,with 3 day window and quakes considered only those which are 6+
Prediction date------date(-actual quakes)
1)2.1.09-----------3.1(7.7),and (6.6)
2)4.1.09----------3.1.09(7.4)
3)11.1.09--------miss
4)12.1.09---------13.1(6.0)
5)15.1.09---------15.1(6.7 and 7.4)
6)18.1.09---------18.1(6.4)19.1(6.6 and 6.0)
7)25/26.1.09--------miss
8)9.2.09--------9.2 (6.0)
9)4.3.09---------miss
10)6.3.09--------6.3.09(6.5)
11)15.4.09------15.4(6.3),16.4(6.7)
12)22.4.09------21.4(6.2)
13)9.5.09-------10.5(6.1)
14)17.5.09------16.5(6.5)
15)18.5.09------miss
16)24.5.09-------24.5(6.0)
17)6.6.09--------5.6(6.4),6.6(6.0)
18)13.6.09------12.6(6.00,14.6(6.0)
1916.6.09-------16.6(6.1)
20)20.6.09-----miss
21)22.6.09-----13.6(6.7)
22)6.9.09------7.9(6.2 and 6.0)
23)3.10.09-----2.10(6.1 and 6.0),3.10(6.1),4.10(6.6)
24)4.10.09----4.10(6.6)
25)11.10.09-----10.10(6.6)11.10(6.0),12.10(6.2)
26)13.10.09---13.10(6.5,6.0,6.4),14.10(6.3 and 6.3)
27)18.10.09----19.10(6.0)
28)20.10.09----miss
29)24.12.09---23.12(6.0),24.12(6.3)
30)26.12.09-----26.12(6.1)
so during 2009 only there were 25 hits ,5 miss out of 30 predictions
Now ,you mean there are only 4 more hits (3 day window) in rest ofthe years ie 2006.2007,2008,2010 and 2011

some of the date hits (and not 3 day window) of 2010-11 are here

12Th June 2010-7.5,6.1
Q)23Rd July 2010-7+ Quakes -three
P)10Th August-2010-7.5 vanuattu
r)12th August 2010,1154UTc-6.9 (13th Predicted
S)13th August 2010-7.2 Mariana- date hit
t)29Th Nov 2010-6.6 Japan
u)21Th DEc2010- Iran -6.5
Japan 7.4
Indonesia -6.2
v)28th Dec 2010-6.3 Fiji -date hit
w) 19th Jan 2010- Pak-7.2 date hit
x)11th FEb 2011- Bio Bio-7.0 date hit
Y)22nd FEb 2011- 6.3 Christ church ,Date hit
here itself the number of hits exceed 29 which you have given


please note 1st and 2nd June 2011 were both date hits ,as predicted
6.4 and 6.3 ,Bio Bio and S.E of HOnshu

Amit

Anonymous said...

Hello Roger

At present due to projects, I do not have time to resume yet. I will try to check and we will rectify that program later so that program can predict the past and future quakes better.

Till then, we will also get more instances of great quakes in 2011.
Anyway yet location can not be predicted so we can not save the people in near future.

Amit Sir need to also search for location prediction , else only the date hits will not be useful for nations. Amit Sir also have good theory which gives good date ranges ( 3 days range ) for 6+ mag quakes. I think taking 1/6 days of year , he is able to predict 1/4th of quakes ( 6+ ) in those years , that is very good .
I know that it is not perfection, but you can not get perfection in such as due to many parameters for quakes and planets are only one parameter.

best regards

Santosh Phadnis
_________________

AMIT said...

hi
Following are the number of quakes as per NEIC records during st Jan 1991 to 31st Dc 2010
Quakes-------- Numbers
1)6.0 and baove--3133
2)6.1-------------2441
3)6.2------------1938
4)6.3------------ 1539
5)6.4-------------1203
6)6.5------------950
7)7.0------------301
8)7.5-------------100
9)8.0------------20
10)8.5-------------4

11)9.0------------1

please note these list also includes multiple quakes on one day.If we do not take them the numbers will be less
If we take 6.5+ case the quakes are 950 ( say 900 after dedutcing multiple quakes in a day)
Thus 900/20 =45 in a year
45/360 ie 1/8 is the odds for date hit
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I can't check for date only because there are multiple quakes every day somewhere of some size.

If I check for mag 6+ quakes you get 82 hits out of 137 predictions but the odds on a 6+ hit in a 3 day window are 0.666, again just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If I restrict the search to 6.5+ in a 3 day window the odds are .295 and you get only 37 hits.

Still chance level.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Hello Amit and Roger Sir,

I do think that predicting 6 mag
to 6.5 mag quakes will be tough
to prove for any theory . That is
because those quakes are too many
and as per your statistics you
can never beat the chance ( probability ) as expected . Again
what I think is approx. 70% quakes ( of 7 mag +) only happen due to planets
Moon's effect . So those remaining 30% are still unpredictable. You may check this
statement for any number of years ; it is nearly true for past many years ! I have not seen for 6 mag , they can be only 50% predictable by planets and moon's theory. Tectonic stress will be enough to cause a 6 mag quake half the times.

Still Amit Sir can try to predict 6 Mag quakes if he feels confident and comfortable in that but proving the theory by 6 mag
quake is much tougher. In this
Roger may agree only if you get
say 6.5 mag quakes and 74 hits
( in 3 day window ) ? Double than what he has mentioned here, But that
will be very tough task indeed.
If
you concentrate on 7 mag and
higher quakes only you may be
able to prove your theory.

best regards

Santosh Phadnis
India.
________________