One of my friend argued tgat there are nearly 150 quakes those are greater than 6 magnitude. So ,every alternate day.
What is fun in doing such prediction of 6 + quake with ,say + or - one day window.
Yes
If you go purely with Satatestics and law of average, there shoukd be 6+ quake evey alternate day.
But this is only a theoretical situation.
Say for example we have several major quakes on 6th Feb 2023. But after that not much.
One 6.1 at NZ on 13th February.
So what seems not favoring my theory ,is actually helping it.
What happens is on potent date and it's window period ,there are several, often a dozen ,6 + quakes ,which gives you a figure of 150 on an average over a year.
So stats, always doesn't give correct pictures
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( modified)
One of my friend argued that there are nearly 150 quakes every year, those are greater than 6 magnitude. So ,every alternate day.
What is fun in doing such prediction of 6 + quake with ,say + or - one day window.
Yes
If you go purely with Satatestics and law of average, there should be 6+ quake evey alternate day.
But this is only a theoretical situation.
Say for example we have several major quakes on 6th Feb 2023. But after that only one directly on 13th February 2023.
One 6.1 at NZ on 13th February.
So what seems not favoring my theory ,is actually helping it.
What happens is on potent date and it's window period ,there are several, often a dozen ,6 + quakes ,which gives you a figure of 150 on an average over a year.
So stats, always doesn't give correct pictures
I have a request to all...
Take only one 6+ quake per day ( as per UTC) even though there are many 6+ quake on that perticular day. By doing this ,my theory will be isolated ( will be redundant),which says , -there will be several 6+ quakes on a potent date ,all over the globe ,on the plates boundaries not related to each other.
Sum up all such 6 + quakes ,one per day.
..and now see how your low of average works...
Pl see for theory and hypothesis
AMIT;
If you predict a 6+ quake on a certain day and there are 10 6+ quakes that day, how many hits do you count?
Roger
A hit date
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