Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Major Earthquake prediction theory

 Theory

Earth consists of an upper Crust  100 km thick and .semisolid magma below.what causes an earthquake (6+) is the tidal pull exerted on molten magma . The Moon ,Sun and major planets like Jupiter , Mars ,Venus and Saturn  also exert pull on magma and upper crust . 

When the tidal pull exceeds, the magma breaks the crust partially and an earthquake occurs. If the pull can break open the mouth of a volcano an eruption will occur. 

 Moon have maximum tidal pull and most of the quake triggers are decided by the position of the Moon.

Deciding the potent date/s

. If Sun and major planets (Jupiter, Mars, Venus and Saturn  are closer the month has potency to produce 6+ quakes 

The minimum distances are 

Sun 0.983 AU (Astronomical unit )

Moon  57 ER (earth radius) 

Jupiter … 3.9 

Mars…. 0.52 

Venus….0.28 

Saturn….8.5 

  if more than one planet is close, it is more potent

Once the distances are known ,check whether in that given month any planet is at maximum declination or closer to maximum declination (N or S).

Also check whether Sun is at Max Declination North or South

Maximum Declinations of planets and stand still positions of the planets are very important because  after that ,it will change the direction from North to South or south to North.  due to this  the tidal pull direction also suddenly changes and there will be an imbalance and jerk  which induce imbalance in the magma causing an earthquake

Deciding the date and time 

Date is decided by the most powerful and fast moving Moon .

 When Moon joins or opposes Sun , Jupiter , Mars, Venus .it creates a trigger for quake. The date on which Moon is closer during month and at maximum declinations North or South these dates are also potent. Often we have seen that, full Moon and New Moon are more powerful for major quakes.

The time can be decided when Moon Joins/opposes Sun /Jupiter,/Mars/ Venus ( whichever is potent ie closer and having maximum declination) 

(c ) Deciding magnitude

Magnitude  can be decided by the  potency Moon ,Sun and other planets have on that day and time . 

If the Sun is closer and at Maximum declination,  or even during New Moon,full Moon. Moon, closest (57 ER ) and maximum declination possible (+ or -27 d ), Jupiter , Mars ,Venus and Saturn are closer and at maximum declination ,the quake could be well above 8.5 magnitude

Deciding locations

 Location of major quakes can be decided by the position of Moon and Sun in that order, where they are at Zenith and/or Nadir longitudes at the decided time with + or – 10 degrees of margin

THE PLATES ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND THAT THE QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES

   location fixing is dynamic

what can be said is .. On potent date the time of quake at a specific location can be estimated by observing Moon /Sun and their Zenith Nadir /rising and setting  at that location 

7 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

AMIT;

I STILL CAN'T FIND PLANETARY EPHEMEREIDES.

I can get a program to calculate everything but that's a "do it yourself" data entry for each
event. Too slow for large data processing.

Very frustrating.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your statement that "plates are due to quakes" is not correct.

Quakes are caused by plate movement. Glorified sound if you will.

You might claim that plates move because planets lighten the load but that's iffy to me.

Planets are just too far away to lift that kind of load.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I found the ephemerides I need but they only work under DOS so I'm still screwed.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
This weekend I will try one suitable for your evaluation/testing
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What will make it suitable for my evaluation, since I can't get the planetary locations?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

This is entirely too much for me to handle.

Your theory involves planetary locations for a particular date and time for a specific location.

This can't be determined from a daily observation at a particular fixed location as found in an ephemeris. It would require readings for each individual event, requiring manual input to a program. This is far beyond my ability where hundreds or thousands of quakes are concerned.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Did you find anything useful?

Roger