Earthquake prediction for September 2013

hi
 For September ,I find two potent dates for 6+ quakes
1) 13th/14th September 2013.......6.5
  please note 13th/14th date means from 12 Noon (UTC) on 13th to 12 Noon on 14th (UTC)

2)19th September 2013..... 6.1 ( a mild potency date)

Time window...+ or - one day
magnitude window...+ or -0.3
places ...not predicted

Amit

Puzzling Moon tidal pull on ocean waters

hi
 Time and again  I was made to understand that, the tidal pull on earth of planets is negligible except some pull by Moon on Earth. Hence, I have started to observe the high tide data of Mumbai (Bombay) port trust against the Moon position and distance
  In the current month ie August I have some puzzling observations. As the other planets including Sun tidal pull is negligible (as it is believed by science), I have only considered Moon distance ,declinations and aspect with Sun. The table is like this

Date....................Moon distance.........Moon declination...........High tide max at Mumbai port in mtrs
           
17th................57 ER(earth radius)....-19...................................3.76.....(Moon at perigee)

18th.............57.1...........................-16...................................4.06

19th.............57.4...........................-13...................................4.36

20th.............57.8..........................-9.....................................4.6....(Full Moon day)

21st..........58.4............................-4....................................4.74

22nd........59.1.........................0........................................4.78 (highest in August)..( Moon on Equator)

Now questions are
1) If only Moon is responsible (to the greater extent) ,why this anomaly? ie why highest on the day other than perigee of Moon?
2) If Sun is also considered why not highest on full Moon day?
3) Why it is highest on 0 declination? even when it is farther than at Perigee or full Moon day?
   Moon only closer to the extent of equator budge portion which far less than one ER (Earth radius)

Any idea? any ready software that can give me projected high tide amount on a given date at given place?

Amit

Earthquake prediction Evaluation- a physical check

hi
  I have been trying to figure out , the results of my prediction, statistically Roger is kind enough to help me in the process by ,special programs devised by him. However, it is some time becomes little confusing as to what the results suggests
  hence ,I have started to find it out ,with a hard ,laborious, physical verification.  It is really tough ,if one tries to figure it out ,by actual verification
  As a simplest and most crude method,  I took only two criteria ( ie part B  of trigger)
 The only two triggers i took were
1) Moon closest
2) Moon at maximum declination ( both north and south)

 Following criteria taken
 a) period 01.01.2005  to 31.12.2012
b) Date on which Moon Is closest taken
c) + or - one day taken for Maximum Moon declination

 No other criteria taken ,to make it simple for physical verification

 1) total days---------2880
 2) total quakes of 6.5+------389 ( actual quakes occurred)
3)  windows selected as per criteria-----532

hits
6.5+--------------108
7+........................41
7.5+.....................15
8+........................3


Actual quakes during selected period

6.5+........................389
7+...........................128
7.5+.......................44
8+..........................10

 It is up to readers to find out ,as to whether it is below or above average

please note
 This is very crude method , as i have not taken all criteria which I consider while giving dates. Roger have considered more criteria ( only left out was fine tuning and some aspects)
  Also, this is based on actual calculations, it is lengthy and laborious, There are chances that, one or two are missed or wrongly taken. But by and large it is fairly accurates

 Readers comments are expected
 Amit

Earthquake prediction for August 2013

hi
  Due to some unavoidable work, I could not calculate the probable dates for August 2013, in advance.
 After some preliminary calculations, it is observed that, there are no strong enough positions to induce 7+ quakes.
 The only probable date is
17th August 2013....................6.4 (+ or -0.3)
 Date window is + or - one day
Amit

Request to prepare a program , for Earthquake prediction,

hi
 I here by, request ,to prepare a program, for predicting Major earthquakes, based on broad guide lines ,given below.and also in another post, Basic Guide lines to predict the major quakes
 Roger, is also working on the same issue.As I am not so program savvy, I request to one and all for this
    May be , I am unable ,to explain Roger,the basic rules, the results are sometimes positive and often negative



Basic rules to prepare a program
Part A)
 Select dates /weeks ,where any two indicators are available
 a)Sun closer(0.98 AU approx) ,Sun at Maximum Declination
 b)Jupiter closer (4.0 AU or so), Jupiter at Maximum declination
 c) Venus closer (0.4 AU or so),Venus at maximum declination
 Out of these three a),b) and c) of part A indicators any one is  required.
   or
out of six indicators{ two of each a),b) and c)} of part A) any four are required for 6.5+ quake to occur

 Part B)
 once probable dates from part A are fixed exact date is decided by trigger Moon.
without part A,Moon may not be able to trigger the quake, hence we do not have quakes on all full Moon and new Moons
 Potential triggers, in descending order are
 a) Moon closer/closest (57 ER), and Moon at Maximum declination (+ or - 22 or whichever is highest)
 b) Full Moon OR New Moon
 c)moon joining or opposing ,planets closer (in part A)

 Amit

Cycle earthquake theory....pre and aftershocks..theory

hi

 please see my note - earthquake prediction for July 2013-

 please note 7.3 earthquake on 15th 14 UTC ,at south sandwich island
  Predicted date and time were 16th July 4.0 UTC.
  yes I am conservative while predicting magnitude. May be I am too cautious while predicting magnitude
 What is to be noted here is the theory of cycle quakes
   Time and again I have stated and pointed out that, as Moon is the main trigger in earthquake occurrence, there are fair amount of chances that,another quake (major 6.5 or so) occurs exactly after 7 and half days to 8 days
 This is because, Moon moves exactly 90 degrees during these 7/8 days and occupies another potent /triggering position 90 degree apart.
   Thus, before and after any major quake,there are chances of pre and post shocks after 7 and half adys and 15 days.
  This continues (15 days or 21 days ) till the potent positions created by major planets ( Jupiter/Venus/Sun) fades away
  Thus, after any major quake,authorities should be cautious on 7/8 th and 15 days also
   Check this theory,if anybody wishes
 Amit

Basic Guide line to predict major earthquakes

hi
 
Basic guide line/thumb rules for major earthquake prediction


 There are two aspects of predicting dates of major quakes,as per my findings,
1) potent month/weeks
2) Trigger dates


1) potent months have indicators like
     a)Jupiter closer/est----about 4.0 AU  or less
      b)Venus closer/sest----about 0.3 to 0.5 AU
      c)Sun closer/est-------0.98 AU or so
 For the time being ,let us keep aside ,direct .retro gate motions
First find out such month where all three/ any two exists

2) date and time are decided by trigger Moon
    a)Moon at max declinations (both)
   b) Moon closer---57.0 ER or so
  c) Full Moon/New Moon
  d) Moon Joining /opposing  planets/Sun mentioned at sr no 1) above

 So instead of taking all above as indicators take sr 1) as first requirement  and sr2) as trigger to fix date and time

 It would be an interesting idea to find dates when these indicators and triggers are present and no 6.5+ quake
 Amit